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So it's a very trivial calculation to fill out the board randomly. Instead, the character of the position will be revealed by having two idiots play from that position. So it's a very useful technique. That's what you expect. This white path, white as one here. Because that involves essentially a Dijkstra like algorithm, we've talked about that before. So here is a wining path at the end of this game. And then, if you get a relatively high number, you're basically saying, two idiots playing from this move. The insight is you don't need two chess grandmasters or two hex grandmasters. We're going to make the next 24 moves by flipping a coin. Given how efficient you write your algorithm and how fast your computer hardware is. We manufacture a probability by calling double probability. And you do it again. And these large number of trials are the basis for predicting a future event. And then you can probably make an estimate that hopefully would be that very, very small likelihood that we're going to have that kind of catastrophic event. So here you have a very elementary, only a few operations to fill out the board. I'll explain it now, it's worth explaining now and repeating later. And then by examining Dijkstra's once and only once, the big calculation, you get the result. And that's now going to be some assessment of that decision. Once having a position on the board, all the squares end up being unique in relation to pieces being placed on the board. Critically, Monte Carlo is a simulation where we make heavy use of the ability to do reasonable pseudo random number generations. And you're going to get some ratio, white wins over 5,, how many trials? And so there should be no advantage for a corner move over another corner move. No possible moves, no examination of alpha beta, no nothing. So it's really only in the first move that you could use some mathematical properties of symmetry to say that this move and that move are the same. And we fill out the rest of the board. And there should be no advantage of making a move on the upper north side versus the lower south side. Who have sophisticated ways to seek out bridges, blocking strategies, checking strategies in whatever game or Go masters in the Go game, territorial special patterns. And we want to examine what is a good move in the five by five board. You'd have to know some probabilities. You'd have to know some facts and figures about the solar system. So you can use it heavily in investment. Turns out you might as well fill out the board because once somebody has won, there is no way to change that result. So we make all those moves and now, here's the unexpected finding by these people examining Go. You readily get abilities to estimate all sorts of things. This should be a review. So for this position, let's say you do it 5, times. How can you turn this integer into a probability? I think we had an early stage trying to predict what the odds are of a straight flush in poker for a five handed stud, five card stud. And at the end of filling out the rest of the board, we know who's won the game. So it can be used to measure real world events, it can be used to predict odds making. So probabilistic trials can let us get at things and otherwise we don't have ordinary mathematics work. So we could stop earlier whenever this would, here you show that there's still some moves to be made, there's still some empty places. So what about Monte Carlo and hex? A small board would be much easier to debug, if you write the code, the board size should be a parameter. So you could restricted some that optimization maybe the value. The rest of the moves should be generated on the board are going to be random. But it will be a lot easier to investigate the quality of the moves whether everything is working in their program. That's the character of the hex game. You can actually get probabilities out of the standard library as well. So here's a way to do it. Use a small board, make sure everything is working on a small board. And in this case I use 1. All right, I have to be in the double domain because I want this to be double divide. But with very little computational experience, you can readily, you don't need to know to know the probabilistic stuff. You're going to do this quite simply, your evaluation function is merely run your Monte Carlo as many times as you can. And if you run enough trials on five card stud, you've discovered that a straight flush is roughly one in 70, And if you tried to ask most poker players what that number was, they would probably not be familiar with. Okay, take a second and let's think about using random numbers again. You're not going to have to know anything else. Of course, you could look it up in the table and you could calculate, it's not that hard mathematically. Now you could get fancy and you could assume that really some of these moves are quite similar to each other. So it's not going to be hard to scale on it. So black moves next and black moves at random on the board. We've seen us doing a money color trial on dice games, on poker. So we make every possible move on that five by five board, so we have essentially 25 places to move. You could do a Monte Carlo to decide in the next years, is an asteroid going to collide with the Earth. One idiot seems to do a lot better than the other idiot. And we'll assume that white is the player who goes first and we have those 25 positions to evaluate. That's the answer. I've actually informally tried that, they have wildly different guesses. Indeed, people do risk management using Monte Carlo, management of what's the case of getting a year flood or a year hurricane. So if I left out this, probability would always return 0.{/INSERTKEYS}{/PARAGRAPH} And that's a sophisticated calculation to decide at each move who has won. But I'm going to explain today why it's not worth bothering to stop an examine at each move whether somebody has won. Because once somebody has made a path from their two sides, they've also created a block. So here's a five by five board. Rand gives you an integer pseudo random number, that's what rand in the basic library does for you. And we're discovering that these things are getting more likely because we're understanding more now about climate change. And that's the insight. Sometimes white's going to win, sometimes black's going to win. Filling out the rest of the board doesn't matter. White moves at random on the board. And indeed, when you go to write your code and hopefully I've said this already, don't use the bigger boards right off the bat. You're not going to have to do a static evaluation on a leaf note where you can examine what the longest path is. So we're not going to do just plausible moves, we're going to do all moves, so if it's 11 by 11, you have to examine positions. It's int divide. Why is that not a trivial calculation? Maybe that means implicitly this is a preferrable move. That's going to be how you evaluate that board. I have to watch why do I have to be recall why I need to be in the double domain. And the one that wins more often intrinsically is playing from a better position. {PARAGRAPH}{INSERTKEYS}無料 のコースのお試し 字幕 So what does Monte Carlo bring to the table? So there's no way for the other player to somehow also make a path. Here's our hex board, we're showing a five by five, so it's a relatively small hex board. But for the moment, let's forget the optimization because that goes away pretty quickly when there's a position on the board. So it's not truly random obviously to provide a large number of trials. It's not a trivial calculation to decide who has won. So you might as well go to the end of the board, figure out who won.